Because it is my blog... baseball ramblings!


Now, I don't think this will hold up over the rest of the season, but the terrible National League West of 2005 (where the winning team ended 2 games above 500, only by winning its final game) is ALL playing above .500 ball.

And this is not just them beating up on themselves. Not a single team has a losing record outside of the West. In fact, only San Francisco has a losing record against either the Eastern or Central division (4-6 vs. E). Every other team is at least .500. San Diego has beaten the ever-loving crap out of the Central division (9-1), actually putting them in 1st place despite having a terrible record inside their own division (9-12).

This bodes well for the West not being the embarassment of baseball. Well, the NATIONAL league west, anyway. I suppose it shouldn't be that surprising. Outside of Colorado, which has surprised everyone by not being mathematically eliminated after the first month (the harshest comment I heard about them last year, as it was said so matter-of-factly), these teams have line-ups which should not be awful. They spend money. They have stars.

They are not Pittsburgh, which has no money, or Florida, which sold off every single major league player but one in the off-season. The Nationals used to be the Expos and have only just become a real boy and the Cubs.... Well, they are cursed by God. The West SHOULD look better by comparison.

No one in the West should be able to play with the big boys, which look to be the Mets (who have spent approximately a billion dollars) and the Cardinals (Pujols one-man wrecking machine). Cincinnati may be something, but I need to see more. Never count out the Braves (although I think this year might finally be one to do so). For completeness I'll say Houston, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia are probably NL-West-level and would be lucky to have a shot at a wild card. Barring returns of Hall-of-Fame pitchers, of course.


BONUS MATERIAL
If you perservered through all that baseball crap, I can give you my latest Stephen-Colbert-Fame-ometer reading.

I met with a visiting colleague yesterday who I had never before been formally introduced to. He greeted my name with a joke, along the lines of, "Say you aren't that Colbert that I saw saying the funniest things to the President, are you?" I said, no, that wasn't me and left it at that. Hamnet (my former bossman) was there and we just kinda shared a look. He is now what you think of when you see the name, "Colbert". Up yours, Claudette!

Terrifying News!

I just got this message in my e-mail from what I can only guess is a front organization (Lucile Meyer? Please, that's not even a real name) for the NSA:

asteroid defined by earring returns home, and freight train near earring figure out over taxidermist.Still boogie her from behind tenor, conquer her garbage can inside with near taxidermist.ribbon related to trembles, and of warranty hesitates; however, bodice ripper beyond figure out..

As best I can determine, an asteroid is about to hit the earth, killing all the animals (hence the need for taxidermy), starting earthquakes and unleashing a horde of bodice ripping rape fiends. Dance and/or opera music may be our only chance.

I am going to start packing up canned goods.

Immigration Nonsense...

I am not exactly sure why this has crept up into a top tier issue. One would suspect Republican shenanigans, a la Gay marriage bans, except it appears to be uniting Democrats and tearing the Republicans apart. Go figure.

I agree controlling a border is a good thing for a sovereign nation to do. I am, however, fairly certain it is not the horrible national dilemma that is being described. Unless you don't want the U.S. to become majority latino and Spanish to rise as a true second language, that is. Yes, what makes my skin crawl is that the strong "base" for immigration reform just doesn't like all these damn funny-talking Mexicans. And how they want to impregnate our women. Damn you Paco, stay away from my daughter. Ba-CHOW! <--(Shotgun noise).

Putting that aside for the moment, National Guard on the border ain't gonna help. Big walls and laser turrets ain't gonna help. It is 2000 miles of border and nothing we can do will really stop people from coming, outside of getting batshit crazy (i.e. start shooting, permanently imprison, etc.). What will slow immigration is to remove the jobs. If they can't work, they won't come.

Fine and great and all, but while it is simple to say, I have done a rough estimate of what that would entail and I am leaning strongly towards the "ain't worth it" camp.

OK, to get rid of people hiring illegal aliens requires strong enforcement. Raids. Investigations. Imprisonment. That is a lot of new law officials, training them, supplying them, more jail space, office space, etc.

It would be wholely unfair to fine (or even jail) people when they can not really tell who is legal and who is not. So we need a new social security card/work card. NOT the same as a national ID, which I find creepy, but simply a new social security/green card that one needs to bring on hiring day. This means issuing it to everyone, a major logistical nightmare in itself. You need to pay to develop it, make it as secure as presently possible. Pay to have some sort of national computer system to properly keep track/issue them. You will need offices everywhere to respond to people who lose them, etc. Some of this stuff can be piggy-backed on existing systems, but it will require a ton of new bureaucracy nonetheless.

We will need more law enforcement to fight counterfeiting, trade in stolen cards. We will have to get tougher, requiring more jailing.

We will need to set up a system to allow presently illegal immigrants to attain a legal status, otherwise the new card system is tantamount to eviction of 11 million people. Not only is this a bad idea, it would never work, lead to riots, etc. Someone needs to run this system and it must be fully functional before we require the cards to work.

So I have expanded several law agencies and created a couple new bureacracies that are social security administration big. Every hiccup in this process will lead to mass chaos, lawsuits, angry marches, businesses closing, etc. And all this before expanding Border Patrol, which is really the only logical way to close our borders to unwanted traffic (the Wall idea is Sooooo dumb). What do you suppose the total price tag of this whole effort will be?

And for what, to increase the price of lettuce? Give Janitor jobs back to our inner city youth?

I just think there are better ways to spend our money. Of course I think we have little reason to fear that anything so comprehensive will come out of this congress. I expect stop-gap, under-funded efforts that sound great but actually make things worse.

You heard it here first.

I wanted to write more, but those bastard scientists out there (and you know who you are) who felt that today was the day to write Helpdesk about their precious "space data", sucked up all my time. As it is I feel as though a large Gibbon was sitting on my chest beating me about the face and neck everytime I turn away from my growing mound of inbox questions, technical reviews, and assorted nonsense(tm).

In the meantime the only procrastinating I have done is to write HummaK and tell him how Round Numbers do not necesarily suck. Only the ill-use of them by the foolish. It is a baseball thing and can be summed up in Ricky Henderson's lifetime numbers, 1400+ Stolen Bases, 297 Home Runs. Think about it and you may understand.

But don't think of a Monkey.

Think of Monkey Links!

Brand new, today, Monkey Links!

At last... You asked for it. You begged for it.
Now, nothing but monkey links!
Feel free to let me know of any critical monkey links I may have missed.

That is all.

By popular demand: The Midnight Ride of Paul Revere Thread, circa April 2005

After reading your note, I ask: who's this guy Dawes?
Some no one! I yell, though this gives me pause.
Another war hero? Revere ain't enough?
Just rode alongside? Did all the same stuff?

Maybe he called all his friends? Sent a mass e-mail?
Or possibly broke some friends out of jail?
How 'bout a good story for this old-timer?
Something more suiting of Jerry Bruckheimer.

We'll make a movie! Something sober and solemn!
With a talking horse played by the guy who did Gollum.
I know for a fact it'll make more than "Jaws"
And then all will know 'bout the great William Dawes.

I think "Euro Trip" made more money than Jaws.

OK, probably not, but Jaws is no longer such an impressive benchmark in the age
of modern world-wide releases, $10 movies and, of course, DVDs. Jaws is
43rd all time world box office, and that was even before the VHS boom, not to
mention DVD, so don't give me none of that adjusted for inflation BS.

I know, I know. It rhymes with Dawes and it would be a bitch to rhyme Titanic or
Shrek 2.

Nowadays big movies make a billion dollars. With a B. As in:
"Boy, that Bastard rhymed Bruckheimer".

Now I'm just spitballing here, but how about an American colonnial
"Amadeus", with Paul Revere as Mozart and William Dawes as the Salieri.
I'm thinking Pitt and Cruise, July 4th release. Oscar gold, I tell you.
Get em by their patriotic gonads.

"The British are coming! The British are coming! And I find it difficult
to care, because I am plagued by the thought of my own mediocrity!"

You could never do Pitt and Cruise. You would have to find somebody
willing to play the meatier but less-glamorous role of Dawes. It's a
Kevin Spacey sort of role...

As for Revere, both Cruise and Pitt lack gravitas. Russell Crowe is your
man.

Brad Pitt plays Paul Revere, a Silver smithy with a passion for freedom,
only eclipsed by his love for Rachel Walker, played by Britney Murphy, his
young bride who was once the paramour of young William Dawes. Wil Dawes, played
by Ben Affleck, is another patriot whose jealousy for Revere threatens to both
consume him and destroy the American Revolution before it even starts. Set against
epic backdrop of the Birth of the United States of America, this epic love
story unfolds side by side with the crucial events that formed this great
nation, from the Boston Tea Party to the Massacre of Crispus Atticus (played by the
captivating Chris Rock). Everything culminates in the Midnight Ride, where
Dawes has to decide to between betraying his heart or his country.
With more guest stars awkwardly cast as important revolutionary figures
than you can shake a stick at (Don't miss DeVito as Ben Franklin), this will be the
hottest ticket this summer. On July 4th, make sure you are along for the
ride:

Midnight Ride (Rated PG-13)

MI:3, Flopping like dying fish?

As is my want, I was perusing the liberal blogs yesterday and I noticed that there was several squealing with glee at the complete and utter failure of the latest Tom Cruise vehicle, Mission Impossible 3.

Now first of all, I don't know why they care so much. Cruise isn't really a political issue unless you are interested in how much influence the Church of Scientology has on politicians (I wonder if the mere mention will lead to a CoS search engine flagging this essentially unread page... shudder). In fact, I imagine conservative blogs are taking the same cold joy in the demise, although I don't really feel like dipping into that cesspool to find out (Egads! Secret political leanings revealed!). People are just suffering TomKat fatigue, don't like Tom Cruise (smug little prick), and/or like it whenever Hollywood Blockbusters fail.

My question is whether it is really fair to call a movie that made 48 million dollars in 3 days a flop. Yes, the powers that be were promised...Promised!...That MI3 would make 50-70 million its opening weekend.

OK, we will ignore for the moment that 48 million is for all intents and purposes identical to 50 million. When you tell an exec a movie will make 50-70 million, I am sure anything less than 60 million is a failure. Ending up technically less than the low end is certainly nothing to write the stock holders about.

My question is whether the estimate makes any sense. MI:1 (which had the audacity to be simply called Mission Impossible) made 45 million opening, 180 million total in 1996. MI:2 made 58/215 million in 2000. While there has been some inflation over the past decade, the 48 million opening appears to be about as good as the first film. The reviews have been solid, so it would probably not be crazy to guess MI:3 will hold well enough to get back to ~180 million dollar territory. [Granted: 1996 was a different era in terms of number of opening day screens. MI:1 was a bigger success than MI:3]


Is it so crazy to expect the THIRD movie in a less than thrilling franchise (Honestly, tell me anything about the characters from the Mission Impossible movies. I dare you.) to not do any better than the first? How about those spaced 5-6 years apart?

Using opening day grosses only (all we got so far for MI3), what is the history of blockbuster 3rd sequels?

Harry Potter (Azkaban/Goblet;94mil/103mil), Lord of the Rings (73mil), & Star Wars (108mil) opened bigger with each film, with some of the biggest weekends of all time. As cultural phenomenon these movies can't even be compared to MI. How many Star Wars fans saw the 3rd film out a sense of obligation? Obligation! No other franchise has power like that.

Goldmember (73mil) opened huge. I got to give you that one. I am fairly certain AP:4 would not do anywhere near as well.

As 3rd movie openings go that drops us all the way down to #48, Jurassic Park III (51 mil), which made 20 million dollars less than II and could end up being very comparable to MI:3 in total money.

Then we have Scary Movie 3 (48mil), the unexplainable franchise, and Matrix:Revolutions(48mil) which SUCKED and made 43 million less than its Reloaded brother.

Rounding out the top 100 we got a Bond film (Die Another Day; 47mil), Terminator III (44mil;There is a big franchise that did not exactly pop), and Scary Movie 4 (40mil), which defies all logic yet again.

Not included is EVERY OTHER 3rd+ movie ever made! Lots of sequels do better than the original. It takes an exceptional 3rd movie and/or franchise to outdo the 2nd film. Again I acknowledge both inflation and the way Hollywood releases films changes money totals upwards with time, but come on. Someone at Paramount fooled themselves into believing Mission Impossible is the uber-franchise that it is not. That doesn't mean you can't make a hundred more of them, a la Bond, but don't expect Harry Potter numbers.

I predict X-Men 3 makes less money only 20 million dollars more opening weekend than X2. In no way can I alter this blog entry later to make me seem prophetic.

So sadly, while I think the storyline is that Tom Cruise killed this film, I think it will really be killed by its own over-expectations. And still gross a half billion dollars when all is said and done.

Sweet God Almighty, I am Free at Last!

Instead of the usual pseudo-political babble or cultural commentary, today's blog is a bit more personal than those so far. A little over 2 and half years ago I finished my doctoral thesis work, which in itself was the end result of eight years of graduate school, which is definitely on the long side for Astronomy (6 years is norm). Well, in science nothing has really happened unless the results appear in a refereed journal. I can't count the number of times exciting new results have been discussed at meetings or in news releases only to never see the light of day again. Success in science is also generally (although not universally) tallied in number of and significance of refereed publications.

Today is the day that the last of my papers from my thesis (of which there are a total of two, so this is the second) has been accepted by the Astrophysical Journal for publication. As I started this work in the beginning of my 3rd year of graduate school (Fall 1997) this represents the culmination of eight and a half years of work, covering the majority of my professional science career. Phew! Now I can move on to the pile of much more recent (2+ years) projects which have yet to be brought to a proper conclusion. Seriously, it feels pretty good. Like I finally finished graduating.

My former advisor, MM, was so thrilled he waxed poetic:

in our field the timescale for great achievements
is so long that we often miss out on lauding the really
singular events. the publication of the
main science results from [JIMBILLY4]'s thesis truly
is a "red letter" landmark day--a day we are
living for--which i for one
am definitely going to celebrate in my own
fashion. for now all i will pass on is my deep conviction
that this is a great field, a great exploration of
scientific discovery, a great profession,
and a downright wonderful great referree, i only wish
i could give him or her a huge hug.
i was not aware of it this morning, but i
now realize that today
is a great day, perhaps even a great time in
human history to be alive.

Before MM makes sweet love to the referee, it should probably be noted the very fast turnaround on re-submittance and acceptance (2 working days) probably means the Editor decided the referee had been accomodated enough and accepted it outright. Since I once worked for/with the Editor and am an acquaintance if not a friend, it seems doubly likely (i.e., cut the poor boy a break).

OK, up to now I have mostly been pasting in things from recent e-mails to see how a honest-to-god blog might look. Today I have run out of obvious (and not so obvious) stuff to post, without going back to stuff that is clearly not so recent.

I still haven't decided if I want to go forward with this, i.e. spend any real amount fo time blogging. It might be nice as a bulletin board alternative to e-mail chains. More pondering and navel staring will be forthcoming.

In the meantime, let me congratulate my Uncle Stephen for taking a big ole stick to the beehive of American politcal consciousness and giving it a good whack. So few people speak truth to power anymore, particularly right to its face. The main criticisms have been that he wasn't that funny and that he was rude.

As to the former, I would agree that he was not at his funniest. I think the Colbert Report is at its best when it combines scathing political satire with outright silliness. Follow a scathing remark on Iraq Death Tolls with a harangue against Hamas-backed bears.I think that one-two punch is the core of his show. Letting that real Stephen smile creep in under his less appealing character. He decided to not go silly in front of President and I think you have to respect that. On a side note, I do think his video "audition" was weak. Points for getting Helen Thomas to become a stalker, but otherwise not his best stuff (even after the edited it down for his show).

As to rudeness, there is some truth to that as well. Hard hitting satire is generally very rude. It is never polite to make someone feel uncomfortable or embarassed. Satire that does not do that is pretty bland, Jay Leno-y stuff. Minor personality quirks are ok to mock (he can't pronounce nuclear) but major policy decisions that effect the entire world are not. Not my idea of great political humor. Of course another thing to keep in mind is that he is playing a character that is mocking the multitude of screaming pundits, and one thing that tends to be universal in that bunch is that they are rude.

As to positives, here are a couple of things peopole have written me:

your uncle is my fucking hero, no shit.

hope all is great

jay

and

First, tell JIMBILLY4 that I'm getting a full body tattoo dedicated to his uncle for standing there and ripping the Pres. and the press! What a moment in history!

Thom

There you have it.

Star Wars continues, but now we are shooting upwards. As TK wrote:

I keep telling them: lasers from space. Lasers from space. I'm like a
broken record with my lasers from space.

Then what does this frickin' administration do?

Earth-bound lasers to -- not from -- TO space. Come on, people! Get with
the program!

Sadly enough, this makes much more sense to me than TK's space sharks shooting
downwards.

It probably would not take much to severely damage a spy satellite, which would
be pointing its very sensitive optics downward. So this really could work with
reasonable assumptions, as opposed to blowing up missles, which would be
freaking hard (not impossible, but really hard).

So as I understand it, it uses adaptive optics to determine how the atmosphere
would cause the beam to become incoherant (slightly like this commentary) and
then probably uses a deformable mirror to send out a deliberately diverging
beam, that the atmosphere would then refocus. Pretty neat.

I got to wonder how they close the loop, do they shoot the beam first and then
use it to close the loop? So that would give the satellite a brief warning that
trouble was coming. How about the tip/tilt correction? If I recall my AO you
can't use the laser for that. If you need stars then you probably need a big
piece of glass to be sure you have a bright enough star nearby your target...

Anyway, I am now fairly far out of my field. I just want to blow up satellites
in space.

This reminds of a disturbing story I read about satellite war. If you blew up an
atomic weapon in low orbit it would trash most unhardened satellites (i.e.
everything except for some small percentage of military satellites). This would
take out most global communications in a single shot. But who has ICBMs and
atomic weapons? Ah, North Korea, you find new ways to scare us every day.

Talk about running out of ideas. Here is a synopsis of the latest Stephen King
book, which sounds so awful it made me laugh until I cried (well, my eyes got
misty anyway).

"At three in the afternoon on October 1st, Clayton Riddell is just an ordinary citizen walking the streets of Boston. In fact, he is about to declare life truly good, as he has just landed the publishing dream of a lifetime. He won't know how good until three minutes later, when his life and everyone else's will be terrifyingly altered. For at precisely 3:03 PM, anyone using a cellphone will inexplicably revert to the savage killer instincts of humanity's ancestral
past."

CELL by Stephen King

What really makes me laugh is that the odds are good that TK will have to
write a similar synopsis about the movie in 2 years.

Oh wait,here it is:

Commenting on the announcement, xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx said, "We're thrilled to
be brining 'Cell' to the screen. Stephen King has his finger on America's
pulse -- a pulse that beats faster and faster with every thrilling word he
writes. 'Cell' continues in the proud tradition of 'Gerald's Game,'
'Insomnia,' and 'Danse Macabre,' proving that King hasn't lost a step in
his lifelong mission to scare the life out of everyone in America."

Zod is running for president. At last a leader before which we can cower.

www.zod2008.com

VG writes:

Hey if Ursa becomes the first lady I'm all for it. She would be the hottest first lady ever!!!

How dare you express carnal lust for one of the chosen brides of the great
leader!

As a charter member of the Zod Youth Patrol (ZYP), I am reporting you to my
squad leader. Expect to be on the compiled list sent to his magnificence on a
weekly basis. Annihilation should soon follow.

Ha ha! Tremble before the might of Zod! Beg for forgiveness if you must, but
know it will not be forthcoming. Zod wastes no mercy on fools.

Oh, and ZYP is having a bake sale this Saturday at the Little Angel Thrift Shop
in Pacoima. They'll be pony rides for the kids and a raffle! See you there!

It's mandatory.

All Hail Zod.

Apparently there is an American Poultry Hall of Fame and the inventor of the chicken nugget was an inductee (thanks VG).

The real crime is that Skinless Joe Jackson was never enshrined after
the infamous 1919 Black Chicken Feet scandal.

The rules guiding induction are also really fickle.
I mean if they let Popeye into the Hall I don't understand how they can keep
the Colonel out. He didn't win a lot of taste tests, but he managed
7 consecutive Herbs and Spices. Led the chicken frying league in Earned
Roaster Average for 5 out of 13 seasonings.

Hopefully the Poultry veteran's commission will right this grievous wrong. Damn
Poultry Writers of America!

OK, that is enough. I need to stop before I hurt myself.

All-time Denny's Grand Slam breakfast leader.

Ow ow ow ow ow ow....